Victoria Brownworth

One of the most important national elections is less than a month away, the Pennsylvania gubernatorial primary. Yet the most recent polls show that 35 percent of Republican voters and 47 percent of Democratic voters remain undecided.

In the Republican race there are two candidates: State Attorney General Tom Corbett, who is polling at 58 percent and State Rep. Sam Rohrer, polling at 7 percent.

In the Democratic race there are four candidates: Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato, Montgomery County Commissioner and former U.S. Representative Joe Hoeffel, Auditor General Jack Wagner and State Rep. Anthony Williams. 

 The most recent polls put Onorato in the lead with 20 percent, Hoeffel with 15 percent, Wagner with 13 percent and Williams with five percent.

 There are 4.5 million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania (51.2 percent), 3.3 million registered Republicans (37 percent) and 1.1 million (11.8 percent) voters registered with other party affiliations, such as the Green, Libertarian and Socialist parties or simply as Independents. 
 

Philadelphia and Allegheny counties are both Democratic strongholds (Philadelphia: 75 percent Democrat, Allegheny: 60 percent Democrat), while the central and northern parts of the state, often referred to as the “Pennsyltucky” portion of the state, are very conservative and vote almost exclusively Republican.

 The highly concentrated and populous counties of the Philadelphia suburbs–Chester, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks–have been traditional Republican strongholds. In the past several national elections, however, many of these suburban areas have been trending independent or Democrat.

 A key factor in the gubernatorial (and Senate) race, though, will be the usual wild card of Pennsylvania politics: The Pennsltuckians tend to vote more regularly than do Philadelphians. Which may be why in every poll taken, Tom Corbett beats any Democrat by a commanding 20 percent.

 One of the issues for Philadelphians with regard to gubernatorial races is the hate-hate relationship Harrisburg has with Philly. For generations the attitude of Harrisburg toward the state’s most populous urban center has been extremely negative. Therefore it is not a Philadelphian’s political paranoia to presume that after eight years with a Democratic governor from Philadelphia, the rest of the state might rebel and vote Republican just to take back the office.
 Rendell has spent much of his eight years in Harrisburg fighting with the Republican-led and utterly controlled State legislature–never more definingly than during last summer’s three-month budget impasse which devastated Philadelphia social service agencies.

 For Pennsylvania progressives, Hoeffel is the clear and really only choice, but with the top three Democrats so close in the polls, the vote will likely come down to region and ad money–Onorato has Allegheny county sewn up and he also has the most money in the election till. Williams has local support (and for all the wrong patronage implied reasons), but is the weakest of the four candidates. 
 

Without a solid Democratic contender, Tom Corbett will likely win come November. And Republican governors have not been good for Philadelphia. Thus how–and how many–Philadelphians vote May 18 is pivotal to the November election.
 

Until recently, Corbett seemed innocuous enough. Unlike fellow Republican candidate Sam Rohrer, who is running mostly on an anti-abortion, anti-gay platform, Corbett has projected a “moderate” Republican image. He supports the death penalty for capital cases. He’s been strong on statewide corruption and secured a personal victory at the end of March with the conviction of former Democratic House Leader Mike Veon.
 But then Corbett went Tea Party and signed onto lawsuits being filed by 21 other states calling the new national health care reform bill unconstitutional. With that move–in a state with the one of the top ten poorest big cities in the country and the second largest percentage of people over 60–Corbett took a giant step to the extreme right, which sets him as far off the political grid as Rohrer. 
 Among the Democrats, Joe Hoeffel is by far the most progressive–he is the only Democrat running who is pro-choice and supports same-sex marriage. His platform is solid on jobs, health care, education, the environment (the Marcellus Shale drilling will be a pivotal environmental issue in PA in the next two years), affordable housing and the elderly. He is also the only Democratic candidate who understands Washington, which is essential for PA’s governor. Ed Rendell is a Washington insider and it has definitely helped Pennsylvania.

 Jack Wagner is the most conservative entrant, with a platform that looks a lot like Sam Rohrer’s, which for a Democrat is not good. Dan Onorato and Anthony Williams have conservative problems as well, and Williams has some seriously bewildering views on education that have made my hair stand on end. (Someone needs to educate gubernatorial candidates about education. School vouchers are an extremist Republican idea that have garnered traction among conservative Democrats for reasons that are pretty inexplicable.) School vouchers equal two things: segregation and bad education. Williams is focusing a lot of his attention on vouchers. Which tells me he knows nothing about the educational needs of either Philadelphia or the state.

 Dan Onorato is not the worst candidate we could end up with of the four contenders, but as an Allegheny county standard bearer, his concern for Philadelphia would be slim and none. He has a good record with regard to jobs, housing and education, but on social issues–and this would impact Philadelphia–he is highly conservative.
 Getting out the vote come May 18 is pivotal for all Pennsylvanians. Even though he’s from Montgomery county, of all the candidates in either party, Hoeffle has the most to offer Philadelphians. Each candidate has a website, however, so be sure to go to the polls informed about your candidate before you press those buttons.